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Thread: Crop And Fruit Tree damage 2012

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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Sutton - Georgina Ontario
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    5,055

    Default Crop And Fruit Tree damage 2012

    Well the stories of "Global Weirding" have started to appear -- see the globe and Mail for example:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle2427150/
    Extreme weather over the past few months has had a devastating impact on fruit growers throughout Ontario, Quebec, and northeastern United States. Unusually warm temperatures in March coaxed fruit trees out of their winter dormancy early. Subsequent deep frosts, occurring as recently as late April, damaged the blossoms, crippling their ability to pollinate. In Ontario, the fruit industry is expecting to record tens of millions of dollars in losses, according to early estimates.

    Apples, cherries and plums have been hardest hit. In the Georgian Bay area, from Owen Sound to Collingwood, one of the largest apple-growing areas in Ontario that produces about 25 per cent of the province’s apples, growers have lost 80 per cent of their crop, says Brian Gilroy, chairman of the Ontario Apple Growers, which represents growers throughout the province. Some individual growers have been completely wiped out.
    Although the story does not make such suggestions, the commenters are out in full force laying the freeze at the feet of "Global Arming/Weirding".

    What is interesting is this paper from 1987 -- which comments on many of the same issues:

    http://pubs.aic.ca/doi/pdfplus/10.4141/cjps87-156
    Information from a survey taken in 1969, from indemnities paid by provincial Crop Insurance Commissions since 1974, and from personal communication with certain scientists provides the following conclusions:

    (l) Spring grain losses from freeze damage occur about once every 3-4 yr in Saskatchewan, less frequently in Alberta (except the Peace River region), Manitoba and the northern clay belts in Ontario and Quebec, and seldom in the remainder of eastern Canada. The frequency of losses of canola on the Prairies has been similar to cereals over the past 12 yr.

    (2) During the past 20 yr availability of short-season corn and soybean cultivars has
    expanded the production of these crops to areas with fewer than 2300 heat units. This has resulted in frequent crop losses from fall freezes in those areas.

    (3) Loss of vegetable crops from freezing seldom occurs because of the well-established cultural practices developed over the years, such as planting after the danger of last spring frost occurrence. and freeze protection practices are used when necessary since they are economically feasible.

    (4) Forages and winter annuals are killed more frequently by smothering and desiccation from ice sheet formation than from low winter temperatures (-25"C or lower) when there is a lack of snow cover. Further setbacks of these crops occur from spring frosts.

    (5) Major declines in tender fruit production occur once or twice every 5-10 yr depending on type of fruit and location and are usually associated with either a severe winter with minimum temperatures of -25"C or lower, or a late spring frost during bloom.

    Interesting that the phenomena had been observed before CAGW had "really" set in -- such that 10 and 20 year patterns had already been established.

    Here follows a link to a report prepared for farmers. See page 34 -- EnviroCan records-- vs measurement at the fruit orchards -- see pages 34 and 41 respectively. The difference may be attributed to lack of adjustments by agricultural researchers -- as people depend on their results for accuracy. I suspect the EC results may have been "adjusted" -- no proof -- no research -- just a hypothesis to research if I did have time. A friend who does research on EC temperature records has told me that his results show that temperature records have likely been adjusted or perhaps data has been carefully selected. The data is in difficult to access form though so he has not done much lately.


    http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/earth-science...pdf/148b_e.pdf

    It will take a few minutes to figure out the graphs -- but if I were a fruit farmer planting varieties that depended on a warming world I just might be in trouble. The "real" dates show a lot of variability for the bloom dates -- but no significant trend. Surprise?

    The weather channel is running very short segments showing "extreme weather" as a recently developed phenomena which should establish this concept firmly in the minds of its viewers -- whether true or not.

    Wait for more stories -- coming to an MSM paper near you -- without fail!

    Interesting book found on Gogle re climate stats for Niagra:
    http://books.google.ca/books?id=z2VT...ntario&f=false

    What is interesting is the table showing killing frosts as late as May 30 -- and it reaches back into the 50's.

    You can find records on line going back to the 1880's -- here's one:

    http://books.google.ca/books?id=XxAw...ntario&f=false

    Farmers have always complained about the weather -- and always will -- I started out in the family market garden a long time ago -- it was the most popular sport then and will be for time immemorial.
    Last edited by willr; 05-09-2012 at 08:51 AM.
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Waubaushene, ON
    Posts
    942
    Real Name
    Mike

    Default Re: Crop And Fruit Tree damage 2012

    Apple growers in western NY (Finger Lakes region) report 100% crop lost. Early spring bloom followed by weeks of sub freezing weather took its toll.

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