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Thread: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

  1. #1
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    Default Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Job Losses, Manufacturing Losses

    After a few of the recent posts I did a bit of digging. Writing these few lines will take longer than finding the closing plants and the jobs losses -- but then I only skimmed the surface.

    Water Heaters John Wood/AO :
    http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/...s_decline.html

    Heinz Plant (previous discussion)
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...ne-in-ontario/

    CCL Industries -- Aerosols
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle15568181/
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...B036D920131122

    Worthington Cylinders
    http://www.chathamdailynews.ca/2013/...s-will-be-lost

    Caterpillar -- Mining SLowdown
    http://www.manmonthly.com.au/news/mi...tting-cat-hard

    Sarnia Lambton -- In Decline
    http://www.chathamdailynews.ca/2013/...turing-decline

    Ring of Fire Chromite Project Shut Down.
    http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/u-s-c...gion-1.1553293
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle15547837/


    Rona
    http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/rona-...jobs-1.1343912



    I did not look that hard.

    People in this forum have said from time to time that we need to slow economic activity for the sake of the environment.

    It cannot be the only reason that things are getting tighter -- but You might guess that it could be so.

    Higher taxes to support Green Energy Programs, tighter waste management -- higher taxes. Maybe the all contribute a bit.

    Many would argue it is something else than the above.

    Draw your own conclusions.
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    I am going to look here in hopes of finding some more cheerful news...

    http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/lmi/...ns/index.shtml

    The Labor reports are broken out by province with monthly summaries.
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Before this thread gets off on some incorrect assumptions let's review a few things. One, a number of the above closures were made because the plants were losing money or generally uneconomic. Two, the corporate tax rates in Ontario are competitive but when a plant is losing money corporate taxes are irrelevant. Three, the Caterpillar closure was simply union busting to go to a lower wage environment. Fourth, the Ring Of Fire isn't even close to development so it isn't a "closure".
    The gutting of manufacturing and the horrific impact on many smaller communities is very sad. However in assigning blame or finding cause there are a great many factors and I don't think the environmental issues are a common cause.

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Yes... This is very sad. Lots of pharma-type jobs are headed out of or have already left the country as well (ie. highly skilled 'knowledge' jobs that require quite a bit more than a high-school education). A trend that has been going on insidiously for a while now. All going to India.
    -------
    Cheers,
    --Rick

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    If anything, we Canadians have to embrace more protectionism.

    NAFTA has destroyed more business than it helped if you ask me. All it allows is for companies like GSW, Heinz, Deere, and Caterpillar etc. to pack up Canadian jobs and ship them off to Mexico or the southern low paying "Right to work" states which is essentially the same thing as Mexico. Low pay. Limited environmental protection. Limited employee protection.

    We got Natural resources, we have Oil and Gas... We also need to look out for number 1, God knows the Americans do. Time to put Canada first.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Quote Originally Posted by dwoody View Post
    Before this thread gets off on some incorrect assumptions let's review a few things. One, a number of the above closures were made because the plants were losing money or generally uneconomic.

    Two, the corporate tax rates in Ontario are competitive but when a plant is losing money corporate taxes are irrelevant. Three, the Caterpillar closure was simply union busting to go to a lower wage environment. Fourth, the Ring Of Fire isn't even close to development so it isn't a "closure".

    The gutting of manufacturing and the horrific impact on many smaller communities is very sad. However in assigning blame or finding cause there are a great many factors and I don't think the environmental issues are a common cause.
    The Ring of Fire is an economic loss and a job loss -- like the title of the thread -- I was not looking at "closures" only... since most are closures -- I can see why you triggered on that.

    Mining startups take many years and are high risk ventures -- trust me I know! Aside from my mostly technical work in this area I often have to deal with the Venture Capital side, technical startup issues and test refining operations. It's expensive and risky. It's not a gamble -- risk assessment is very good -- that's why the shutdown occurred. Also some groups were making noises that it could not go ahead on general environmental grounds.

    Once running, (Chromite mine) it may not have been economic anyway -- if they had to tie to the electrical grid. People should note that the GAM is in effect a "tax". It is also what it is because of uneconomic energy costs in the mix. It's about four times the cost of conventional energy -- plus the cost of adding the extra distribution/collection lines -- people forget about that cost as well. See below for the GAM. If they had to build their own power generation that could well have had crippling environmental assessments as well.

    http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/siteshared...icity_bill.asp


    What is the monthly rate for Global Adjustment?
    There are three rates, each available at different times of the month. Each is set to recover the total monthly costs of the global adjustment. Depending on when in the month you are billed, your LDC may use any one of the three rates. The 1st estimate is posted by the first business day of the billing month, the 2nd estimate is posted by the final business day of the billing month and the actual global adjustment is posted on the tenth business day after month end. Monthly estimated rate information for 2011 and 2012 is available here.

    1st Estimate Class B Global Adjustment (¢/kWh)
    Year
    Average
    Jan
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    3.77
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    Aug
    Sep
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    2013
    5.82
    5.00
    4.81
    4.93
    5.86
    6.76
    7.04
    5.09
    6.24
    6.65
    6.31
    What is the Provincial Benefit?
    Effective January 1, 2011, consumers that paid the Provincial Benefit will see that term renamed the Global Adjustment due to an amended government regulation. The Provincial Benefit was a line item on electricity bills from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2010. Monthly rate information from that period is available here.


    It's easy to forget about it...

    The GAM -- from my analysis is at this point largely due to Green Energy (sigh... I know) but that's how it looks. The LTD (Long Term Debt) from Ontario Hydro is included in there -- but according to Parker Gallant was retired long ago and it is just sleight of hand to downplay the GEA costs.

    That is why I included "environmental" -- it appears as a significant cost even where it seems to not be there...

    Companies often buy power on the "Spot Market" -- they snap up extra capacity to do a refining run or heavy duty smelting or whatever....

    Those spot power prices are typically in the $0.02-$0.03 per KWH ($20-$30 per MWH) range. Note that the GAM charge is typically greater than the spot power price.

    Small businesses cannot typically buy at these lower rates -- so they are always paying the higher rates -- even though the actual value may be far lower than their charges.

    People seem ready, willing and able to believe the costs are necessary and help improve the environment and seem widely accepting of the extra costs. Maybe they understand what they are paying -- maybe not.


    Sorry about the long explanation -- but many still do not understand this "business cost" of the environmental charges present in their energy bill.

    Hope that makes more sense now.
    Last edited by willr; 11-27-2013 at 01:10 AM. Reason: sp clarity
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Quote Originally Posted by scooby074 View Post
    If anything, we Canadians have to embrace more protectionism.

    NAFTA has destroyed more business than it helped if you ask me. All it allows is for companies like GSW, Heinz, Deere, and Caterpillar etc. to pack up Canadian jobs and ship them off to Mexico or the southern low paying "Right to work" states which is essentially the same thing as Mexico. Low pay. Limited environmental protection. Limited employee protection.

    We got Natural resources, we have Oil and Gas... We also need to look out for number 1, God knows the Americans do. Time to put Canada first.
    Jason:

    There is enough truth to what you say that people should look very closely.

    I personally, in the past, would write up a lot of environmental paperwork for Mexico. It's a lot worse now so we hire specialists to do all the write-ups from reclamation to reforestation. (In a desert climate -- no less!) In a tropical climate in Latin America you have to create the plan fast -- or everything is overgrown before you can finish the plan -- so you have to throw it out and do it again. Go figger!

    Even for a drill program which is very low impact we often fill several two inch binders with all the paperwork and permits.

    I suspect the Southern States may be taking most of the work these days. I also suspect that many people in the deep south fall on their knees and cry when they get a job -- even $10-$20 an hour. It's a matter of perspective.

    Mexicans are watching Canadian companies come south set up plants and ship everything from Avocados and fruit juice and manufactured goods back to Canada. They too wonder if they are giving away their country. Many of their trained engineers take jobs in these plants as low level technicians or skilled assembly workers... it's what they can get. My next door neighbor in the west coast office is a trained electrical engineer. His family scraped together enough bucks for him to open a shrimp farm. He does ok now. He is a great resource on where to find the exotic chemicals and surfactants we use for test mining...


    As for limited employee protection... maybe if we ever see another big project we should ask if you want to take on the job of dealing with say, Mexican employee protection plans and officers. You might find it interesting -- I know I did.

    Things there -- are like they are here. People lose their jobs due to plant closures -- and are happy to get odd jobs or a street sweeping gig...

    A different viewpoint I know.

    Take it for what you think it is worth....
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    I was going to add some information on the NAFTA super Highway:
    http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/...1-0c93f24478b9

    Now I find it was all a conspiracy....

    What I do know is that I sat down with some Cabinet Ministers once from -- somewhere -- it was an informal lunch cause I knew a guy who knew a guy.... (Just like that clip they had on the Space Channel)

    They wanted to pick my brain on where the economic activity is in Canada -- what I knew about manufacturing centers -- where the population is... nothing secret -- just publicly available stuff -- but from a native who had lived and worked there. They wanted to know where I would put the trail head to tap the largest manufacturing center in Canada -- I said Windsor -- at the bead of the 401 -- since the 401 connects into the Golden Horseshoe which has 80% of NA manufacturing... AT least I thought it was in that range.

    The plan was to put the Canadian end in Winnipeg -- that was the sales pitch -- because then it would be easy to move goods around Canada because that was the most convenient access to "everywhere in Canada". Besides -- it supported a route through the mid western US states that were most interested in hosting their parts and made it convenient to route the traffic through them -- not that they would benefit -- oh no -- it was just altruistic notions.

    One of our family companies had heavy equipment out working on a section of what was claimed would be part of this super highway -- and it was certainly being built to those standards -- including the corridors and isolation...

    http://www.examiner.com/article/naft...ay-south-texas
    I'm not saying the section was worked on is on the above map. It was a conspiracy after all -- so admitting that we did would just be silly.... It was probably a goat trail now that I think about -- four lanes, fenced controlled access -- some of those mountain goats really move along and you need controls in place... -- just sayin'

    If the manager had know it was all a conspiracy I am not sure how he would have handled the news...

    Now I find that it was definitely all a conspiracy -- and I attended a meeting. It feels kinda weird...

    Not sure what to think now.
    Last edited by willr; 11-27-2013 at 02:03 AM.
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Quote Originally Posted by willr View Post

    Once running, (Chromite mine) it may not have been economic anyway -- if they had to tie to the electrical grid. People should note that the GAM is in effect a "tax". It is also what it is because of uneconomic energy costs in the mix. It's about four times the cost of conventional energy -- plus the cost of adding the extra distribution/collection lines -- people forget about that cost as well. See below for the GAM. If they had to build their own power generation that could well have had crippling environmental assessments as well.
    That horse is already out of the gate and running. Work on the 440mw lower Mattagami hydro project is well under way as well as adding capacity to to generating stations along the upper mattagami river. I don't pay too much attention to the projects in that part of the province, at least not the details, a dam in the woods is like any other dam in the woods. I know we have carpenters working for Peter Kiewit who have returned home from a completed generating station project and are expected to be back at work early in January on another project http://www.kiewit.com/projects/power...ttagami-river/ According to my sources at Peter Kiewit, a design build engineering firm that's building hydro projects in Mattagami river region, there is a lot more on the drawing board that haven't yet been announced.

    I believe all this infrastructure is to support mining operations and I doubt very much the mining operations will be paying retail rates for hydro.

    The Chromite mine that was "cancelled" is one of nine mines being developed in the region at this time.

    I've been following the oil sands development since I was working in Alberta in the 1970's. If I had a nickel for every time a project was shelved and restarted and every developer who pulled out of a project I'd have quite a collection of nickels. When it happens in Alberta it's just business as usual. When it happens in Ontario the sky is falling.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Quote Originally Posted by dave_k View Post
    That horse is already out of the gate and running. Work on the 440mw lower Mattagami hydro project is well under way as well as adding capacity to to generating stations along the upper mattagami river. I don't pay too much attention to the projects in that part of the province, at least not the details, a dam in the woods is like any other dam in the woods. I know we have carpenters working for Peter Kiewit who have returned home from a completed generating station project and are expected to be back at work early in January on another project http://www.kiewit.com/projects/power...ttagami-river/ According to my sources at Peter Kiewit, a design build engineering firm that's building hydro projects in Mattagami river region, there is a lot more on the drawing board that haven't yet been announced.

    I believe all this infrastructure is to support mining operations and I doubt very much the mining operations will be paying retail rates for hydro.

    The Chromite mine that was "cancelled" is one of nine mines being developed in the region at this time.

    I've been following the oil sands development since I was working in Alberta in the 1970's. If I had a nickel for every time a project was shelved and restarted and every developer who pulled out of a project I'd have quite a collection of nickels. When it happens in Alberta it's just business as usual. When it happens in Ontario the sky is falling.

    Dave:

    Thanks for the info:
    http://www.blackandmcdonald.com/medi...013-winter.pdf

    Another one...

    I don't follow them closely now either -- have not for over 10 years...

    Indeed -- wish you could have a few more nickels -- it would brighten Christmas for you. Especially a collection that size...
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    IMHO I would rather see natural resources left in the ground rather than agreeing to a poor deal just to create jobs

    I wouldn't be upset if the big three left the province altogether if we were able to get other manufacturers to come here. Honda and Toyota have invest a great deal in modern plants over the last 20 years and continue to do so. It takes a bribe to get any of the big three to invest in plants here and mostly they do as little as possible to extend the lives of a few plants when we fork over cash then shut them down a few years later.

    If we're going to invest in auto plants give the money to a japanese or German brand that can build a good product and sell cars, at least that way we wouldn't be flushing the money down the Ford executive bonus toilet. They run leaner and their plants have more modern technology than the big three. On a personal level since Ford shut down the Talbotville plant for the first time in 35 years I won't be buying a Ford truck but a Toyota.

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    It's interesting reading these posts....everyone is concerned with their corner of the world, as is natural to do as humans - focus on our immediate environment. I think the string of closures, layoffs, etc speaks to a bigger issue - two actually: 1) A global economic slowdown 2) An increase in government involvement (aka: more taxes & regulations) resulting in a higher cost of doing business. If no one has heard of Chris Martenson, he's a very interesting individual with a very different viewpoint with respect to the global economy and how it relates to the availability of energy and resources. If you have a half hour - watch his video here (the first 30mins are his presentation, the rest is Q&A). Martin Armstrong is another interesting individual - with engineering degrees in Computer Science & a degree in economics, his take on the economy is different and very interesting. You can read his blog here. His premise is that the economy moves in predictable cycles as seen over centuries and that the current tax grab by governments through increased regulation and various other means is choking the global economy.

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bubba Gump View Post
    It's interesting reading these posts....everyone is concerned with their corner of the world, as is natural to do as humans - focus on our immediate environment. I think the string of closures, layoffs, etc speaks to a bigger issue - two actually: 1) A global economic slowdown 2) An increase in government involvement (aka: more taxes & regulations) resulting in a higher cost of doing business. If no one has heard of Chris Martenson, he's a very interesting individual with a very different viewpoint with respect to the global economy and how it relates to the availability of energy and resources. If you have a half hour - watch his video here (the first 30mins are his presentation, the rest is Q&A). Martin Armstrong is another interesting individual - with engineering degrees in Computer Science & a degree in economics, his take on the economy is different and very interesting. You can read his blog here. His premise is that the economy moves in predictable cycles as seen over centuries and that the current tax grab by governments through increased regulation and various other means is choking the global economy.
    Another view on Peak Oil:
    http://www.resilience.org/stories/20...is-yet-to-come

    by James Hamilton, originally published by Econbrowser | SEP 17, 2013
    World oil production stagnated between 2005 and 2007, which given rapid growth in demand from emerging economies sent oil prices shooting up. Some observers suggested that production might never rise much above the levels seen in 2005. Among those who raised this possibility, two of the more thoughtful have changed their mind. Euan Mearns last month summarized what he saw as three (or four) nails in the coffin of peak oil. And Stuart Staniford, an early editor and contributor for the Oil Drum, declared a few weeks ago that the data have spoken.
    Certainly world oil production did not stop growing in 2005. Last year's total was estimated by the EIA to be 4.8 million barrels higher each day than it had been in 2005.

    fwiw

    The fellow is not a geologist yet he is prognosticating on matters geological... hmmmm... I did better on our internal stuff.

    Anyway the video is from November 29, 2011 he was predicting for 2013 -- ??? so???

    So do we have $200 Oil yet? Gold is approaching $1000 -- due to admitted manipulation to a target value...

    Crude oil is $92.96 as I write this:
    Gold about $1200
    Silver about $19.68

    So how did the guy on the video do?


    http://www.kitco.com/
    Uranium:
    Uranium is a naturally occurring element that can be found in low levels within all rock, soil, and water. Uranium is the 51st element in order of abundance in the Earth's crust. Uranium is also the highest-numbered element to be found naturally in significant quantities on Earth and is almost always found combined with other elements.[9] Along with all elements having atomic weights higher than that ofiron, it is only naturally formed in supernovae.[43] The decay of uranium, thorium, and potassium-40 in the Earth's mantle is thought to be the main source of heat[44][45] that keeps the outer core liquid and drives mantle convection, which in turn drives plate tectonics.
    Uranium's average concentration in the Earth's crust is (depending on the reference) 2 to 4 parts per million,[8][13] or about 40 times as abundant as silver.[10] The Earth's crust from the surface to 25 km (15 mi) down is calculated to contain 1017 kg (2×1017 lb) of uranium while the oceans may contain 1013 kg (2×1013 lb).[8] The concentration of uranium in soil ranges from 0.7 to 11 parts per million (up to 15 parts per million in farmland soil due to use of phosphate fertilizers), and its concentration in sea water is 3 parts per billion.[13]


    Note that Sea Water can be mined for Uranium -- is it worth it? Probably.... 3ppb

    At what ppb is gold economic? Silver -- what ppb is economic? Compare to economic mining of gold...
    http://goldinvestingnews.com/world-c...ld-exploration

    General Mineral info...
    http://webmineral.com/


    If you do not know how a mineral/hydrocarbon deposit relates to average crustal value (abundance is sometimes used as opposed to value) you should not be investing in minerals of any kind.

    You can just type in the common names by using you page search (CTRL-F) the looking -- or hunt.

    Average Crustal Abundance
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundan...ts_(data_page)


    Splash One -- will look at the blog later.

    fwiw



    Last edited by willr; 11-27-2013 at 03:40 PM.
    ---
    Will

    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” —- Mark Twain

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Looks like Kellogg is joining Heinz in closing a Canadian operation http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/kell...year-1.2458080. Hopefully the Belleville plant will remain competitive.

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    And the great Canadian brand, Canada Goose has been bought by the dreaded Bain Capital.

    How long before Canada Goose becomes Beijing Duck? Given their history of offshoring manufacturing, Id say its pretty good. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cana...ital-1.2458501

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    Default Re: Manufacturing Capacity Loss and Job Loss...

    Potash Corp Of Sask layed off 400 people. Most for good. he CEO said the dividends were sacrosanct.

    Our Conservitive Premier Brad Wall wrote them explaining it is wrong to lay off the " Producers" and the shareholders should feel some pain. Nope. Shareholdrs are supreme beings.

    The corporate sense of entilement is alive and living well.

    It is all geared to the next quarter returns, how ever short sited they are.

    NAFTA is a joke, but since the people involved also made it possible to move huge trust funds offshore, Well what do we expect ? In some smaller countries you would end up in jail or dead.

    But us Canucks say " were sorry" " Please don't do that again". and sign here for your pension.

    Just look at what they are doing to the old and new war vets. Screwing them over.

    I used to do orthopedic work for Veterns Affairs and First Nations. One phone call and a couple forms, I got appoval.. Now since they have farmed out insurance to private managers ( just as we were shipping more armed forces to the middle east). The ability to get any approval is near 0.

    I was cut off the list for First Nations for no reason. I reapplied 3 times and never did get an answer. They turffed about 20 people across Canada in the same position as I.

    We were the ones that sat with different levels of Gov. to set standards, exams, training courses. All volunteers in a National association.

    So in effect rather than treat a person. they now play a waiting game, waiting for the person to die or have a limb amputated. Look at the recent suicides in the armed forces. Even Romeo Delair is getting screwed over.

    So when you treat the people that have given us the security and rights in this country, get treated as welfare bums. It shows the true colors of the discision makers. This is not limited to one polotical party. Whoever is in charge, is just a puppet for the corps.

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